After a second ineffective mass missile attack against Israel, Israel has responded, for a second time, with a calibrated and restrained counterattack using waves of F35 stealth strike fighters to demolish Iran's Russian-made S300 air defense systems. Iran's air defenses are almost completely obliterated, and should they choose further escalation – Israel can attack them at will. Will this finally deter Iran?
Join The Dystopic News Letter HERE
Dystopic: The Technology Behind Today's News
Let's review the two Iran-Israel attack cycles …
The First Iranian Attack and Israeli Response
April 13, 2024, Iran made good on its threat to avenge the deaths of 11 senior commanders by a precision Israeli air strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria. Dubbed "Operation True Promise," Iran launched a disproportional direct attack on Israel, a massive salvo of 170 missiles and 120 drones.
In what can only be viewed as a master class in Deterrence By Defense (missile defense in this case), 99% of the 70 missiles and 120 drones in Iran's massive attack were intercepted and destroyed by coordinated Israeli, U.S., and allied missile defense systems.
Six days later, on Friday, April 19, 2024, Israel responded to Iran's attack with a pinpoint strike against a single target, a Russian-made S300 missile defense system located at the 8th Shekari Air Base in northwest Esfahan, Iran. (Introduction graphic - Bomb Damage Assessment from commercial satellite images - Institute for Science and International Security). The S-300 system provided air defense for Iran's Esfahan and Natanz nuclear weapons development sites. Israel sent a clear signal that it could follow up and destroy these nuclear sites at a time of their choosing, hoping to de-escalate the hostilities. Unfortunately, Iran did not.
The Second Iranian Attach and Israeli Response
On October 1, Iran carried out a second large-scale missile attack against Israel in response to Israel's assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan The strike, dubbed "True Promis 2," involved about 180 ballistic missiles, including several of Iran's newest hypervelocity missiles. The second attack was as ineffective as the first attack. Over 95% of the rockets were intercepted and destroyed by
coordinated Israeli, U.S., and allied missile defense systems.
On Saturday, October 26, 2024, Israel struck back. While details from the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) have been limited, it appears the IDF carried out several waves of attacks using F35 Stealth strike fighters and drones. The attack targeted Iran's weapons plants and air defenses. By all reports, Israel destroyed a vast majority of Iran's Russian-made S300 air defense system across the country, guarding government, nuclear, oil production, and military sites.
For a second time, Israel's calibrated response made a specific point to Iran's leadership: Iranian air defenses are no match to Israel's stealth fighters and advanced standoff weapons. It was also clear that if Iran's most highly protected site were vulnerable, Israel would be entirely capable of pinpoint attacks on Iran's leadership.
The Deterrence Lesson
Deterrence, at its most basic level, is the threat of force discouraging an opponent from taking an unwelcome action. This can be achieved through the threat of retaliation (deterrence by destruction) or denying the opponent's war aims (deterrence by denial). We are at a point in the Middle East where deterrence has completely failed. Iran and its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, are initiating ever-increasing cycles of violence. Israel continues to demonstrate its superior military capabilities in both deterrence by defense, with its anti-missile system, and deterrence by destruction, with its seemingly unstoppable counterattacks on Iran. Considering the size of Iran's attacks aimed at harming both civilian and military targets, Israel's counterattacks have been restrained and targeted at degrading Iran's defensive capabilities.
Israel is attempting to de-escalate the violence engulfing the Middle East. Given the destruction of Iran's air defense system, will Iran stand down? So far, they have continued to retaliate and escalate. Thankfully, Iran and Israel are 1000 miles apart – other than Iran's proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, a war between the two is limited to the air. That, in itself, favors de-escalation at some point. Time will tell.
Finally, Russia's S300 and S400 air defense system capabilities should be questioned. They have proved ineffective in defending against Israel's use of F35 Stealth fighters armed with stand-off missiles or thet Ukrqine's use of drones and Western missiles.
Want to learn more?
Join the Dystopic newsletter HERE
Look for my book available by pre-sale in December:
How the Hell Did We Get Here?
A Citizens Guide to the New Cold War and the Rebuilding of Deterrence
Find out more at the "How the Hell Did We Get Here?" Book Page: Here
Comments