It's that time of year, time to Look at the prevailing facts, the direction, and momentum of current events and technology trends, and make some predictions. As a CTO, I'd always have to make 5-year roadmaps for my companies (Dell, TI, and multiple startups), so this comes naturally.
In 2024, I didn't write a blog or post my predictions last year. Instead, I was fixated on the chaotic world situation and the utter failure of U.S. and our Western Allies' deterrence. So much so that I wrote my book:
How The Hell Did We Get Here?
A Citizen's Guide to the New Cold War and Rebuilding Deterrence
If you are interested, This is the final week of my pre-sale campaign. So don't be shy. You are just a click away from checking out the unique book package offerings, which you can find HERE.
Many of my 2025 predictions tie into my extensive research in writing my book. So, let's get to it. Let the predictions begin...
Prediction 1:
The U.S. and our Allies Begin Rebuilding the West's Deterrence Regime
An excerpt from my book breaks down some critical tasks to rebuild deterrence, given the current world political climate, that I hope President Trump will take. A degree of bipartisanship is essential to craft a long-term, consistent, and coherent strategy to fight thet New Cold War we find ourselves in. Yes, we are in a New Cold War, like it of not.
The excerpt:
The new U.S. President should create a bipartisan commission of military, intelligence, and state department professionals and House and Senate representatives to draft a formal deterrence policy. Once crafted, the policy should be approved by the supermajorities of the House and Senate, followed by the President, and serve as a consistent strategy that administration after administration supports and executes. The policy should address a number of areas, including:
Arms control and arms reduction – especially avoiding weaponization of space and adhering to the 1967 Space Treaty. The U.S. has historically sought arms control and arms limitation, and we should do so today.
Ironclad collective defense alliances – NATO, AUKUS, the QUAD, and our collective Allies should never be in a position to question U.S. commitment. In return for that commitment, the U.S. should expect our Allies to share economically and militarily in the common defense. The new Cold War is too complex for the U.S. to foster deterrence alone. Our Allies should be on the same Cold War footing as the U.S. Yes, the U.S. can and must lead, but containing the Axis of Tyranny, to use the analogy, is a team sport. As Secretary of State Anthony Blinken Stated in an Address to NATO, "Trust in our alliances has been shaken … we must recommit to our alliances – and to the shared values that sustain them." (Blinken, 2021)
Strengthen the Arsenal of Democracy – The U.S. and our Allies must fund military and intelligence systems, staffing and training, defense production, and ammunition stocks to fight three wars simultaneously: the Middle East, Europe, and the Western Pacific. We must pursue secure resources and production within our Allies and complete decoupling of the supply chain for weapons and intelligence systems from China. As Senator Roger Wicker noted, "The best way to avoid further conflict is to be ready. Today's security challenges demand a generational investment to revitalize our armed forces." (Wicker, 2024)
Go on the offensive -We are reacting to the Axis of Tyranny. Our strategy should have the Axis reacting to our actions. The U.S. and our Allies have the power to intervene in Gray Zone activities and have thet Axis pay the price for their actions. The current global chaos will not abate until we make moves, sometimes forceful moves, to de-escalate them. As Chairman Michael McCaul of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs commented concerning taking action, "The time is now: this administration must work with Congress to show our adversaries that the United States will not stand by while our enemies work together to spread chaos around the globe." (McCaul, n.d.)
Uphold the Red Line on Nuclear Weapons and Iran – As we have discussed, the U.S. has allowed far too many red lines to be crossed in the last 20 years without consequence. Under no circumstances can we allow Iran, a violent theocracy, to possess nuclear weapons. Iran has set the Middle East ablaze with chaos and violence. The U.S. must use any means necessary, including the use of nuclear weapons, to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. It's a harsh assessment but a necessary reality!
There is no Deterrence without Credibility – The new Trump Administration needs to establish and maintain credibility. Part of that is lowering the bombast and glib tweets and behaving as Theodore Roosevelt once stated at the turn of the 20th century, "Walk Softly and Carry a Big Stick."
Prediction 2:
The U.S., Israel, or both Take Out a Majority of Iran's Nuclear Facilities.
Why wait till Iran has a bomb? The horrific actions of Iran's proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, Iran's so-called "Axis of Resistance," make it clear that armed with a bomb, Iran would use it against Israel and has missiles that reach across most of Europe.
Turkey and Israel have weakened Iran. Syria is lost to Turkish-backed rebels, SNA – Syrian National Army, and HTS-Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Israel has weakened and killed the leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas, not to mention taking out most of Iran's air defenses. The Trump Administration has publicly stated it will return to a "Maximum Pressure" sanctions regime upon entering the Oval Office.
I hate to be a warmonger, but the time will never be better to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities than in the next few months. I suspect the U.S. will approve and provide material support ( e.g., bunker-busting munitions) for Israel to stage a campaign and destroy most, if not all, of Iran's nuclear facilities. The U.S. will, on paper, be a neutral party in this campaign, but few countries will buy the ruse.
Turkey and Israel have weakened Iran. Syria is lost to Turkish-backed rebels, SNA – Syrian National Army, and HTS-Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Israel has weakened and killed the leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas, not to mention taking out most of Iran's air defenses. The Trump Administration has publicly stated it will return to a "Maximum Pressure" sanctions regime upon entering the Oval Office.
I hate to be a warmonger, but the time will never be better to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities than in the next few months. I suspect the U.S. will approve and provide material support ( e.g., bunker-busting munitions) for Israel to stage a campaign and destroy most, if not all, of Iran's nuclear facilities. The U.S. will, on paper, be a neutral party in this campaign, but few countries will buy the ruse.
Prediction 3:
Putin Refuses the Peace Terms Laid Out by Trump to End the Ukraine War
Russia is winning its war with Ukraine right now. It costs nearly 2000 Russian (and/or North Korean) lives daily, but Russia is slowly gaining ground. The Economist estimates that 3000 of the 11,000 North Korean Troops sent to assist Putin have already been killed or wounded. Why would Putin agree to anything, as his negotiation stance gets stronger by the day? However, cracks are forming in the Russian economy. Deaths and defections of young Russian men are lowering Russia's available labor force. Nearly 10% of Russia's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is going to the war effort, leaving no funds for economic investment. At some point, "the wheels will fall off of Russia's economic wagon."
I wager that the war will drag on another year – Russia will not accept Trump's or alternative EU terms to end the war. This will be the first case where the new Trump administration will be forced to backtrack, and rather than cut off arms supplies, the U.S. and EU will be forced to increase them.
It's a hideous war of attrition with over 1,000,000 Ukrainians and Russians dead and wounded -when it ends, Ukraine will either Join NATO (which Putin will oppose) or require a coalition of select EU countries positioning forces to maintain the peace likely Eastern and Northern European countries bordering Russia who have their security at stake. Will that include U.S. forces? It shouldn't. The U.S. has bigger issues to take care of in the Pacific.
Prediction 4:
China's economy worsens, and Taiwan is spared, at least this year, from invasion
China has two problems:
Overproduction: President Xi's policies to increase the production of all goods have created an overcapacity problem that is growing as large as the real estate bubble that has hobbled the Chinese economy.
Under Consumption: The world will not let China dump goods everywhere, like in the early 2000s. China needs to increase its domestic consumption greatly. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is 68% of the U.S. GDP, while China's PCE is 39% in 2024, down from 54% in 2022.
Given the current state of its economy, China cannot afford a trade war. Starting a shooting war in the Taiwan Straits would only worsen the economic situation. The West would likely implement a trade embargo and block all sea lanes through the inner island chain surrounding China – botting up shipping. China could attempt to avoid a shooting war by executing a maritime blockade of Taiwan, which again would likely invite a counter-blockade. Hostilities over Taiwan are a giant bear trap. Why President Xi contemplates putting his leg into that trap is astonishing – at least to this author.
The Trump administration has threatened a series of tariffs against China. At this point, China cannot afford an increased tariff regime further stymying trade. The administration could use tariffs as a wedge to drive a split between China and Russia. After all, what does Russia offer China? Nothing economically!
Keep an eye on this, as undercutting China's support for Russia will have a severe impact on Russian war efforts in Ukraine and a possible peace treaty.
Prediction 4:
AI has a problem – the cost of energy to run massive server farms
This prediction could be called The Rise of SMR – Small Modular (nuclear) Reactors.
The U.S. Department of Energy predicts that server farms, also known as data centers, consume around 2% of total U.S. electricity capacity and are expected to significantly increase in the coming years, reaching up to 9% of U.S. capacity by 2030. Solar and Wind are ill-suited to serve these massive installations.
Amazon led a $500 million Series C-1 financing round in X-energy, a nuclear energy reactor and fuel company. The investment will help X-energy complete its reactor design and licensing and the first phase of its fuel fabrication facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
Microsoft is partnering with Constellation Energy to restart a reactor at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant to supply electricity to its data centers. That is rather ironic, given the famous nuclear accident that occurred at Three Mile Island nearly 45 years ago on March 28, 1979
Nuclear power plants, long considered tabu by nearly the entire American electorate, are finally being viewed as a viable green energy solution.
2025 will see further investment- After nearly 40 years with only a single reactor brought online. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) estimates that the global SMR market could reach 21 gigawatts by 2035, representing 20 to 30 of these new modular reactors.
What about nuclear fusion? In 2024, the global nuclear fusion industry received over $7 billion in funding, with 6.7 billion coming from private investors and 426 million from public investors. However, variable commercial reactors are at least a decade away. I have heard that fusion power has been 10 years away for the last 40 years. While I'll hold out my hope for a fusion breakthrough, the better bet is SMR.
Prediction 5:
Space X takes over the Artemis Moon Program, Leaving Boeing and NASA in the Dust
After the failure of the Boeing Space Starliner, two astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, remained trapped in the International Space Station. Their relief mission to return home is now scheduled for March 2025. The pair have "enjoyed" an extra 9 months in space more than they planned for.
The fiasco highlights typical program mismanagement of cost overruns and delays by NASA and Boeing Space. The Boeing Space unit is up for sale. Barron magazine reports that Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin will likely acquire the unit, given Lockheed and Boeing are 50/50 joint-venture partners in the United Launch Alliance (ULA). ULA is the heavy booster used to launch Starliner.
This fiasco has delayed the U.S. efforts to establish a permanently manned presence on the Moon by at least 12 months. SpaceX has always been the backup to the ULA/Boeing Space combination.
Given Elon Musk's view of the poor performance of NASA projects and cost management, I expect DOGE (aka the Department of Government Efficiency) to take a hard look at how NASA conducts business. There will be a radical change in how the U.S. conducts space exploration. Could SpaceX completely replace the legacy NASA space Contractors and Programs?
Prediction 6:
LEO is getting crowded with communications Mega constellations
Speaking of SpaceX …
In 2025, SpaceX StarLink low Earth orbit (LEO) "Mega Constellation" of Communications Satellites Constellation broke even and became profitable with over 4 million subscribers and 7,000 of an FCC-approved 13,000 satellites in orbit.
In 2025, Starlink will face competition from two new entrants in the "Mega Constellation" business:
Amazon's Project Kuiper will deploy a constellation of 3,232 satellites as approved by the FCC. The company has a deadline from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to launch half of the satellites by July 2026.
Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST) Qianfan ("thousand sails") Program launched the first 18 of an expected 12,000 satellite constellation in August with plans to be operational in 2026.
Additional mega constellations are planned, with an estimate that by 2027, LEW could be populated with over 75,000 communications satellites. With space becoming that crowded, satellite situational analysis monitoring and collision avoidance have become requirements for all new satellites being launched. Space.com reported that Between December 1, 2023, and May 31, 2024, SpaceX's Starlink satellites made roughly 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers.
IN CLOSING ...
I could go on and on. These are a few of the many advances and world events unfolding in 2025.
Will AI fulfill its promise of usefulness and profitability?
Will there finally be a breakthrough for augmented reality viewers to make viable consumer AR glasses?
We will discuss these and many more topics in the Dystopic Newsletter throughout 2025.
Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News
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