2025 Predictions

It's that time of year, time to Look at the prevailing facts, the direction, and momentum of current events and technology trends, and make some predictions. As a CTO, I'd always have to make 5-year roadmaps for my companies (Dell, TI, and multiple startups), so this comes naturally.

Cherenkov Radiation SMR - Small Modular Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory

In 2024, I didn't write a blog or post my predictions last year. Instead, I was fixated on the chaotic world situation and the utter failure of U.S. and our Western Allies' deterrence. So much so that I wrote my book:

How The Hell Did We Get Here?

A Citizen's Guide to the New Cold War and Rebuilding Deterrence

If you are interested, This is the final week of my pre-sale campaign. So don't be shy. You are just a click away from checking out the unique book package offerings, which you can find HERE.

Many of my 2025 predictions tie into my extensive research in writing my book. So, let's get to it. Let the predictions begin...

Prediction 1:

The U.S. and our Allies Begin Rebuilding the West's Deterrence Regime

An excerpt from my book breaks down some critical tasks to rebuild deterrence, given the current world political climate, that I hope President Trump will take. A degree of bipartisanship is essential to craft a long-term, consistent, and coherent strategy to fight thet New Cold War we find ourselves in. Yes, we are in a New Cold War, like it of not.

The excerpt:

The new U.S. President should create a bipartisan commission of military, intelligence, and state department professionals and House and Senate representatives to draft a formal deterrence policy. Once crafted, the policy should be approved by the supermajorities of the House and Senate, followed by the President, and serve as a consistent strategy that administration after administration supports and executes. The policy should address a number of areas, including:

• Arms control and arms reduction – especially avoiding weaponization of space and adhering to the 1967 Space Treaty. The U.S. has historically sought arms control and arms limitation, and we should do so today.

  
  

• Ironclad collective defense alliances – NATO, AUKUS, the QUAD, and our collective Allies should never be in a position to question U.S. commitment. In return for that commitment, the U.S. should expect our Allies to share economically and militarily in the common defense. The new Cold War is too complex for the U.S. to foster deterrence alone. Our Allies should be on the same Cold War footing as the U.S. Yes, the U.S. can and must lead, but containing the Axis of Tyranny, to use the analogy, is a team sport. As Secretary of State Anthony Blinken Stated in an Address to NATO, "Trust in our alliances has been shaken … we must recommit to our alliances – and to the shared values that sustain them." (Blinken, 2021)

  
  

• Strengthen the Arsenal of Democracy – The U.S. and our Allies must fund military and intelligence systems, staffing and training, defense production, and ammunition stocks to fight three wars simultaneously: the Middle East, Europe, and the Western Pacific. We must pursue secure resources and production within our Allies and complete decoupling of the supply chain for weapons and intelligence systems from China. As Senator Roger Wicker noted, "The best way to avoid further conflict is to be ready. Today's security challenges demand a generational investment to revitalize our armed forces." (Wicker, 2024)

  
  

• Go on the offensive -We are reacting to the Axis of Tyranny. Our strategy should have the Axis reacting to our actions. The U.S. and our Allies have the power to intervene in Gray Zone activities and have thet Axis pay the price for their actions. The current global chaos will not abate until we make moves, sometimes forceful moves, to de-escalate them. As Chairman Michael McCaul of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs commented concerning taking action, "The time is now: this administration must work with Congress to show our adversaries that the United States will not stand by while our enemies work together to spread chaos around the globe." (McCaul, n.d.)

  
  

• Uphold the Red Line on Nuclear Weapons and Iran – As we have discussed, the U.S. has allowed far too many red lines to be crossed in the last 20 years without consequence. Under no circumstances can we allow Iran, a violent theocracy, to possess nuclear weapons. Iran has set the Middle East ablaze with chaos and violence. The U.S. must use any means necessary, including the use of nuclear weapons, to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. It's a harsh assessment but a necessary reality!

• 
  

There is no Deterrence without Credibility – The new Trump Administration needs to establish and maintain credibility. Part of that is lowering the bombast and glib tweets and behaving as Theodore Roosevelt once stated at the turn of the 20th century, "Walk Softly and Carry a Big Stick."

Prediction 2:

The U.S., Israel, or both Take Out a Majority of Iran's Nuclear Facilities.

Why wait till Iran has a bomb? The horrific actions of Iran's proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, Iran's so-called "Axis of Resistance," make it clear that armed with a bomb, Iran would use it against Israel and has missiles that reach across most of Europe.

Israel Attack April 19 2024 Shekeri Air Base Iran

Turkey and Israel have weakened Iran. Syria is lost to Turkish-backed rebels, SNA – Syrian National Army, and HTS-Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Israel has weakened and killed the leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas, not to mention taking out most of Iran's air defenses. The Trump Administration has publicly stated it will return to a "Maximum Pressure" sanctions regime upon entering the Oval Office.

I hate to be a warmonger, but the time will never be better to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities than in the next few months. I suspect the U.S. will approve and provide material support ( e.g., bunker-busting munitions) for Israel to stage a campaign and destroy most, if not all, of Iran's nuclear facilities. The U.S. will, on paper, be a neutral party in this campaign, but few countries will buy the ruse.

Turkey and Israel have weakened Iran. Syria is lost to Turkish-backed rebels, SNA – Syrian National Army, and HTS-Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Israel has weakened and killed the leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas, not to mention taking out most of Iran's air defenses. The Trump Administration has publicly stated it will return to a "Maximum Pressure" sanctions regime upon entering the Oval Office.

I hate to be a warmonger, but the time will never be better to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities than in the next few months. I suspect the U.S. will approve and provide material support ( e.g., bunker-busting munitions) for Israel to stage a campaign and destroy most, if not all, of Iran's nuclear facilities. The U.S. will, on paper, be a neutral party in this campaign, but few countries will buy the ruse.

Prediction 3:

Putin Refuses the Peace Terms Laid Out by Trump to End the Ukraine War

Russia is winning its war with Ukraine right now. It costs nearly 2000 Russian (and/or North Korean) lives daily, but Russia is slowly gaining ground. The Economist estimates that 3000 of the 11,000 North Korean Troops sent to assist Putin have already been killed or wounded. Why would Putin agree to anything, as his negotiation stance gets stronger by the day? However, cracks are forming in the Russian economy. Deaths and defections of young Russian men are lowering Russia's available labor force. Nearly 10% of Russia's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is going to the war effort, leaving no funds for economic investment. At some point, "the wheels will fall off of Russia's economic wagon."

I wager that the war will drag on another year – Russia will not accept Trump's or alternative EU terms to end the war. This will be the first case where the new Trump administration will be forced to backtrack, and rather than cut off arms supplies, the U.S. and EU will be forced to increase them.

It's a hideous war of attrition with over 1,000,000 Ukrainians and Russians dead and wounded -when it ends, Ukraine will either Join NATO (which Putin will oppose) or require a coalition of select EU countries positioning forces to maintain the peace likely Eastern and Northern European countries bordering Russia who have their security at stake. Will that include U.S. forces? It shouldn't. The U.S. has bigger issues to take care of in the Pacific.

Prediction 4:

China's economy worsens, and Taiwan is spared, at least this year, from invasion

China has two problems:

• Overproduction: President Xi's policies to increase the production of all goods have created an overcapacity problem that is growing as large as the real estate bubble that has hobbled the Chinese economy.

  
  

• Under Consumption: The world will not let China dump goods everywhere, like in the early 2000s. China needs to increase its domestic consumption greatly. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is 68% of the U.S. GDP, while China's PCE is 39% in 2024, down from 54% in 2022.

  
  

Given the current state of its economy, China cannot afford a trade war. Starting a shooting war in the Taiwan Straits would only worsen the economic situation. The West would likely implement a trade embargo and block all sea lanes through the inner island chain surrounding China – botting up shipping. China could attempt to avoid a shooting war by executing a maritime blockade of Taiwan, which again would likely invite a counter-blockade. Hostilities over Taiwan are a giant bear trap. Why President Xi contemplates putting his leg into that trap is astonishing – at least to this author.

The Trump administration has threatened a series of tariffs against China. At this point, China cannot afford an increased tariff regime further stymying trade. The administration could use tariffs as a wedge to drive a split between China and Russia. After all, what does Russia offer China? Nothing economically!

Keep an eye on this, as undercutting China's support for Russia will have a severe impact on Russian war efforts in Ukraine and a possible peace treaty.

Prediction 4:

AI has a problem – the cost of energy to run massive server farms

This prediction could be called The Rise of SMR – Small Modular (nuclear) Reactors.

X-Energy Xe-100 SMR - Small Modular Reactor

The U.S. Department of Energy predicts that server farms, also known as data centers, consume around 2% of total U.S. electricity capacity and are expected to significantly increase in the coming years, reaching up to 9% of U.S. capacity by 2030. Solar and Wind are ill-suited to serve these massive installations.

Amazon led a $500 million Series C-1 financing round in X-energy, a nuclear energy reactor and fuel company. The investment will help X-energy complete its reactor design and licensing and the first phase of its fuel fabrication facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

Microsoft is partnering with Constellation Energy to restart a reactor at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant to supply electricity to its data centers. That is rather ironic, given the famous nuclear accident that occurred at Three Mile Island nearly 45 years ago on March 28, 1979

Nuclear power plants, long considered tabu by nearly the entire American electorate, are finally being viewed as a viable green energy solution.

2025 will see further investment- After nearly 40 years with only a single reactor brought online. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) estimates that the global SMR market could reach 21 gigawatts by 2035, representing 20 to 30 of these new modular reactors.

What about nuclear fusion? In 2024, the global nuclear fusion industry received over $7 billion in funding, with 6.7 billion coming from private investors and 426 million from public investors. However, variable commercial reactors are at least a decade away. I have heard that fusion power has been 10 years away for the last 40 years. While I'll hold out my hope for a fusion breakthrough, the better bet is SMR.

Prediction 5:

Space X takes over the Artemis Moon Program, Leaving Boeing and NASA in the Dust

After the failure of the Boeing Space Starliner, two astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, remained trapped in the International Space Station. Their relief mission to return home is now scheduled for March 2025. The pair have "enjoyed" an extra 9 months in space more than they planned for.

Boeing Starliner Capsule stranded at the International Space Station.

The fiasco highlights typical program mismanagement of cost overruns and delays by NASA and Boeing Space. The Boeing Space unit is up for sale. Barron magazine reports that Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin will likely acquire the unit, given Lockheed and Boeing are 50/50 joint-venture partners in the United Launch Alliance (ULA). ULA is the heavy booster used to launch Starliner.

This fiasco has delayed the U.S. efforts to establish a permanently manned presence on the Moon by at least 12 months. SpaceX has always been the backup to the ULA/Boeing Space combination.

Given Elon Musk's view of the poor performance of NASA projects and cost management, I expect DOGE (aka the Department of Government Efficiency) to take a hard look at how NASA conducts business. There will be a radical change in how the U.S. conducts space exploration. Could SpaceX completely replace the legacy NASA space Contractors and Programs?

Prediction 6:

LEO is getting crowded with communications Mega constellations

Speaking of SpaceX …

In 2025, SpaceX StarLink low Earth orbit (LEO) "Mega Constellation" of Communications Satellites Constellation broke even and became profitable with over 4 million subscribers and 7,000 of an FCC-approved 13,000 satellites in orbit.

In 2025, Starlink will face competition from two new entrants in the "Mega Constellation" business:

• Amazon's Project Kuiper will deploy a constellation of 3,232 satellites as approved by the FCC. The company has a deadline from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to launch half of the satellites by July 2026.

  
  

• Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST) Qianfan ("thousand sails") Program launched the first 18 of an expected 12,000 satellite constellation in August with plans to be operational in 2026.

Additional mega constellations are planned, with an estimate that by 2027, LEW could be populated with over 75,000 communications satellites. With space becoming that crowded, satellite situational analysis monitoring and collision avoidance have become requirements for all new satellites being launched. Space.com reported that Between December 1, 2023, and May 31, 2024, SpaceX's Starlink satellites made roughly 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers.

IN CLOSING ...

I could go on and on. These are a few of the many advances and world events unfolding in 2025.

• Will AI fulfill its promise of usefulness and profitability?

• Will there finally be a breakthrough for augmented reality viewers to make viable consumer AR glasses?

We will discuss these and many more topics in the Dystopic Newsletter throughout 2025.

Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News

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Drone Hysteria and North American Air Defense

Not since October 30, 1938, when Orsen Welles' radio adaptation of H.G. Well's War of the Worlds by the CBS Mercury Theater group was mistaken by the listening audience as an actual Martain invasion has there been as much hype and hysteria as this week's of Drone Hysteria in New Jersey and the New York metro area.

Small Drone Swarm at Night

The inept communication response by local, state, and national governments and elected officials only added to the hysteria. As a prime example, New Jersey Republican congressman Jeff Van Drew claimed he had heard from "high sources" that the flying objects were tied to Iran. The Iranian assertion has been proven false, but you would hardly know that in this internet-fueled, conspiracy-driven. Van Drew then went on to say that some of the drones are run by Chinese Intelligence Agencies – again, with no proof. The Chinese have effective spy satellites, so why bother sneaking drones and drone operator teams into the U.S.  drones? But I digress …

Let's take a moment and break down some facts about drones, U.S./North American Air Defense, the need for improved interior Air Defense, and finally, the new frontier of under-the-sea drones (UUVs - Unmanned Underwater Vehicles) as if we did not have enough to worry about.

Before we continue - My new book:

How The Hell Did We Get Here?

A Citizens' Guide to The New Cold War and THe Rebuilding of Deterrence

is now available for pre-order. You can find out more HERE. - Now Back to the Blog

Drones Are Filling The Skies Day And Night!

Commercial drones provide a myriad number of functions daily. Cities and Counties used drone overflights of neighborhoods to assess property taxes. Drones are used to inspect buildings, bridges, pipelines, railroad tracks, cell towers, electrical power lines and towers, and other structures. Drones are used extensively in agriculture to inspect crops, locate herd animals, and apply pesticides and other chemicals to improve crop yields. Drones are used to transport and deliver packages and, soon, people. Flying taxis will be everywhere! Just wait! Finally, drones are used for reconnaissance by police, emergency services, armed forces, and weapons or weapons platforms by armed forces.

The FAA ( Federal Aviation Administration) estimates that over 8000 drone flights a day are piloted by an operator with a Part 107 license FAA drone operator license. In all likelihood, it is twice that number. Drones have very specific rules against operation in controlled and restricted air space such as Airports, Military bases, Navy ships,  and specific government buildings – your neighborhood is not one of those restricted areasDrones are not planes; they have a maximum flight ceiling of 400 feet. Partly, it is to maintain line-of-sight operations and partially to stay out of FAA's national air traffic control system for commercial, private, and military aircraft tracking and control. Drones operate below air traffic control radar and are not tracked by the air traffic control system. Only military/security anti-drone systems are designed to detect, track, and destroy drones.

Drones have very specific rules against operation in controlled and restricted air space such as Airports, Military bases, Navy ships,  and particular government buildings – your neighborhood is not one of those restricted areas. Infrared video over fights of neighborhoods during the winter helps your local property estimate what portion of your property is heated/cooled and other property improvements to adjust your property taxes annually. So you know the government is overflying your home at least once a year and possibly more in the cooler winter months.

As we close 2024, The FAA estimates that 1.8 million recreational drones and nearly one million commercial drones will operate in the U.S.

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved night drone flights on April 21, 2021. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requires that drones flown at night have anti-collision lights that meet the following requirements:

• Visibility: The lights must be visible from at least three miles away

• Color: The lights must emit either white or red light – it is not clear if other colors are allowed or forbidden

• Placement: Red lights should be on the left side of the drone, and white lights on the right

• Flash rate: The lights must flash at a rate that reduces the risk of collision

Every picture and video of the Drones in question over New Jersey have their night running lights on - operating legally.

Residents of New Jersey claim that some of the drones they have observed are as big as a small SUV. That could be true. Lets look at some examples.

Amazon Mk27 Hexagonal Drone

By example, The Amazon Mk27  drone is large, 5,5 feet in diameter. The Mk27 has a cruising speed of  50 miles per hour and can deliver up to a  5 lb package to a maximum range of 12 km. The Mk27 is a form of tilt-rotor aircraft craft that uses its hexagonal spars as wings to fly like a plane in transit and tilts 90 degrees to hover for take-off,  landing, and delivery.

UPS, DHL, Flytrex (teamed with  Walmart), and Matternet (healthcare- medical delivery) are examples of companies entering the drone delivery market, adding even more drone traffic to our skies.

Griff Aviation 300 Heavy Lift Drone

As another example, The Griff Aviation 300 is the heaviest lift drone in the commercial market. The 8-propeller design can carry approximately 500 pounds (226 kg) of payload,  a flight time of up to 31 minutes,  and a cruising speed of 60 Km/hour.

Why The Sudden Worry About Drones?

America has used advanced Predator and Reaper drones for surveillance, target acquisition, and target destruction for decades. The U.S. drones can stay aloft for 24 to 42 hours,  roam 1000s of Km, carrying a complement rockest and bombs raining death and destruction from the skies, seemingly at will. In recent years, the Iran-Israel conflict and, more importantly, the Ukraine-Russia conflict have raised awareness in the American public that the U.S. is no longer preeminent in drone technology and deployment. Our potential enemies are catching up. They, too, can rain terror from the sky.

I believe the new newfound Drone Hysteria is subliminal. The Ukraine-Russia war set off a wave of destructive drone warfare innovation by Ukraine to counter Russia's incredible conventional warfare strength with a new, effective asymmetric drone counterforce - David's new sling to kill Goliath. Early in the war, Ukrainian drone teams used a combination of satellite intelligence to find the general location of Russian troop concentrations, followed by recognizance drones to acquire targets locally and feed coordinates to killer suicide drones to target artillery, armored vehicles, and soldiers.

Ukraine's Dragon Fire Thermit Drone Source: Ukrainian Defense Ministry

One of the most fearsome drone weapons to enter the war in 2024 is Ukraine's "Dragon Fire" drone. The drone sprays molten thermite ( burning temperature of 2000 C) to burn down, destroy forested areas, and remove the cover from Russian soldiers. You can watch a short video of Dragon Fire HERE. Needless to say, imagine a terrorist with a thermite drone weapon like that ripping up and down the streets of New Your at lunch hour – the casualties would be horrific.

Alternatively, consider a simple drone-based bombing weapon. As discussed earlier, the largest commercial drone, the GRIFF Aviation 300, can lift a 500 lb package. That is the same weight as a U.S. MK-82 500 lb, free-fall bomb. The MK-82 has a 20-meter (65-foot) blast radius. T65 feet is equivalent to the width of the average dense suburban home lot. Put another way, a 500lb bomb would obliterate a single U.S. suburban home and significantly damage all the adjacent homes around the impact point.

The point is people view the devastation of modern drone warfare on the news nightly from events in Ukraine and between Iran and Israel. More likely than not, these scenes are leaving the chilling perception that if devastating drone weapons can be used over there, what's to stop them from happening here? This, of course, helps drive hysteria.

Clearly, a drone terror attack using a bomb or dragon fire thermite weapon would raise alarm and panic. The fact is that it would require 100s, even 1000s of drones, as they are used daily in Ukraine -Russia War to inflict serious damage and casualties. American readers have far more pressing threats from gun violence and lone shooter events wreaking more terror every week than any highly unlikely terror drone scenario.

So what are we to do? As our British Allies would say:

Keep Calm and Carry On

We can summarize a few facts from all the observations in New Jersy:

• The drones observed all have operating running lights and are legal flights  - if these were malicious or terror drone operations. The drones would be blacked out (no running lights) to add to their stealth.\

• The drones must operate within the legal 400-foot FAA flight ceiling, or they would be detected by the FAA's air traffic control system. There are no reports from the FAA of illegal flight ceiling violation detection.

• Other than anti-drone systems for military and government locations, no city, county, state, or regional systems detect and track drones. Terrorists can run around in cars and trucks. Do we have a system for detecting the movement of all cars and vehicles at all times? No, we don't – we focus on specific vehicles when used in criminal activity. Shouldn't the same logic apply to drones?

There is not a single shred of evidence that the sitings in New Jersey and the Northeast are any but legally operated drone night flights.

That being said, drones are, in fact, a growing issue for air defense, and clearly, given the muddled government response, there is a need for reform in dealing with drone flights/traffic and for there to be a defined chain of command and responsibility in monitoring activity and taking action against the drones and drone operators as appropriate.

Early Warning and Air Defense - How Are We Protecting Our Skies?

My soon-to-be-release book, How The Hell Did We Get Here? ( find out more HERE) discusses how early warning and situational awareness are a critical component of deterrence. That is, preventing an attack in the first place by inducing fear in the mind of an adversary that if they conduct a first strike, it will be detected in time to face a counter-strike.  

It should be no surprise that the U.S. Defense Department's principal national defense objective is deterrence by early warning of an adversary's first nuclear strike and allowing the U.S. to mount a devastating counter-strike. Today, the U.S. deploys an air defense system based on early-warning satellites, sophisticated Cobra Dane long-distance radars, and upgraded early-warning radars to detect an attack by the USSR, China, or Korea. These facilities are located at:

• Flyingdales, UK - upgraded early warning radar for Russian land-based or North Atlantic ballistic missile submarine-launched missiles

• Thule, Greenland - upgraded early warning radar to detect Russian land or sea-based missile strikes over the North Pole. 

• Shemya and Clear Alaska – A Cobra Dane and an upgraded early warning radar to detect sea-based missile strikes from the northern Pacific or strikes over the North Pole from China or Eastern Russia.

• Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Beal Air Force Base, California – early warning radars cover the western, southern, and eastern approaches from sea-based missile strikes from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

• Early warning and tracking satellites – Infrared launch plume detectors are used to detect an initial missile launch and optical and radar tracking is used to determine incoming missile trajectory and handoff to other radar sensors, control, and missile defense systems. 

These radar systems and satellites provided a 360-degree detection bubble around North America, Greenland, Iceland, Europe, and the U.K., as shown in the following diagram:

US Early Warning Radar Sites

In recent years, the breadth of radar warning coverage has extended across Europe, the Middle East, Japan, and the Western Pacific to provide global coverage. As we have seen in the events between Israel and Iran, the Aegis systems on individual U.S. Navy ships can be tied into regional or global commands as needed.

As the diagram illustrates,  our air defense systems look outward toward our adversaries, not inward across the CONUS – Continental United States. Other than air Traffic control, no other assets are looking for drones or small aircraft flying below thet air traffic control, except for the U.S. Southern border, where the Department of Homeland Security / Customs and Border Patrol operates TARS- Tethered Aerostat Radar System. TARS is a dirigible balloon lofted on a cable to a height of 10,000 feet containing a downward-looking RADAR covering a 200-mile radius capable of detecting low-flying aircraft.

TARS - Tethered Aerostat Radar System – drug trafficking and smuggling detection system

TARS is deployed at 8 locations across the southern border, Florida, and Puetro Rico and and can track 50,000 aircraft in flight over the U.S., Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and South America. When TARS was first deployed in 1978, illegal flights fell from 8,500 to less than 10 per year.

The TARS radar is sensitive enough to track larger drones with capacities of 20 lbs or more. Could it be replicated across the U.S. and repurposed for drone detection?

TARS deployment Locations

POSSIBLY, but the system would not provide detection of medium and smaller drones and would have a considerable price tag to deploy and operate. TARS can be economically justified for interdicting and stopping illegal drug trafficking at the southern border. There is no possible justification for a general drone detection system based on TARS

The advent of hypervelocity missiles by China and Russia has created the need for the U.S. to develop and field a global early warning and detection system. To accomplish this goal, the current ground-based early warnings and border surveillance systems will be replaced by a new space-based system: Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA).

The current Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS), which detects missile launches, is being augmented with a constellation of low earth orbit satellites, an expanded Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture tracking layer. The U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) is developing tracking layer missile detection satellites that will use SDA's StarShield satellite communications network developed by SpaceX. By the close of 2024, the first tranche of 126 Transport Layer satellites (i.e., communications satellites), 35 Missile Tracking satellites, and 12 tactical demonstration satellites to test design improvements for later satellite tranche deployments.

So, what is the takeaway?

The U.S. DoD has its focus where it needs to be:  improving early warning and missile/airspace defense against a major or rogue nuclear attack. The new U.S. Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture provides significant early warning improvements to boost U.S. deterrence. However, our new space-based systems don't address drone detection. As opposed to the hype od a "drone threat," the DoD is focused on the real,  persistent nuclear threat threat from Russia, China, and  North Korea and, unless we stop them from building nuclear weapons, Iran.

The U.S. does have significant military and security anti-drone detection and defense systems. They are being tested and improved every day in Israel with The IDF Israeli Defense Force and  U.S. troop deployment in Syria and Iraq. Could these be deployed across the U.S. to address drones? Yes – but why? So far, other than hype, there is no evidence of any real drone threat.

Since We Are on The Topic of Drones – Let's Close With An Emerging Threat: Submarine Drones

A new arms race is brewing as part of a possible Naval conflict between China and thet U.S. over the Taiwan Straights: autonomous submarine weapons platforms – aka submarine drones.

It all started with Russia's development of the  Poseidon—a nuclear-powered underwater drone equipped with nuclear weapons designed to be launched from submarines. Powered by a compact nuclear reactor, it is believed the Poseidon could travel at unprecedented speeds of 100 knots (185 kilometers per hour), have a range of approximately 10,000 kilometers, and operate at depths of up to 1,000 meters. Designed to evade detection by  U.S. acoustic tracking devices and other measures. Poseidon could be used to attack strategic ports and aircraft carrier battle groups.

As it turns out, the U.S. already has 5  ELUUV Extra-Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, code-named ORCA, in service. ORCA has a range of 6,500 nautical miles and can carry a variety of weapons and payloads, including:

• Torpedoes: Mk. 46 lightweight torpedoes and Mk. 48 heavyweight torpedoes

• Sonar: Raytheon PROSAS PS60-6000 synthetic aperture sonar for ocean floor mapping

• Mines: The Navy plans to use the Orca to dispense mines

• Cruise missiles: Land attack cruise missiles

The platform allows deep interdiction operations in hostile naval warfare environments where thet U.S. would rather not risk a crewed nuclear submarine. The ORCA  platform should give thet Chaines pause should they consider an amphibious attack or blockade of Taiwan or an operation against the Russian Black Sea Fleet to assist Ukraine should that war escalate.

We'll keep an eye on submarine drones, aka. UUV- Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, and provide updates when there is significant news to offer.

I'm looking forward to hearing about the first sightings of submarine drones off the Jersey  Shore to complement all the drone sightings, said the author in jest!

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Russian Nuclear Saber Rattling: Round 2

For the second time since the start of the Ukraine-Russia War, Russia has modified its nuclear rules of engagement, lowering the conditions under which nuclear weapons would be used to counter a given threat.  Predictably, this threat has

Russia test-launch Sarmat (Satan II) MIRV ICBM from Plesetsk cosmodrome on the edge of the Russian Arctic /Russian Defense Ministry

resulted in alarm across Europe, the U.S., and our extended allies. However, unlike Putin's nuclear threats at the start of the Ukraine invasion in 2022, which effectively delayed the flow of  NATO weapons to bolster Ukraine's defense,  the U.S. and our allies, Britain and France in particular, are providing more weapons and more authorization for weapons to strike targets inside Russia.

The West is not seeking to de-escalate the situation. Instead, we are calling Putin's bluff. Ratcheting up Ukraine's offensive and defense capabilities in a calculated brinkmanship, setting the table for expected peace negotiations that the incoming Trump Administration has signaled will begin in January. What could possibly go wrong until then? Other than the start of World War 3!

If you have fears,  concerns, or outright terror about a possible Nuclear War, don't worry. At least you can be informed and have rational fear. Here are two of my most popular blogs to get you up to speed on nuclear war and post-nuclear attack survival:

Nuclear War, What's In it For You? click HERE

A Survivors Guide to Nuclear War. click HERE

Back to our regularly scheduled discussion …

So, how did this spiral of escalation begin?

At just over 1000 days of fighting, the Ukraine-Russia is taking an incredible toll on both sides. Russia will likely close the year with nearly 800,00 killed and wounded. Ukraine will have losses under half of their Russian counterparts at almost 350,000. This is a brutal conflict reminiscent of the trench warfare of World War 1 than a modern war, with troops fighting for feet and yards each day over a front nearly 600  miles long.

Ukraine Battlefield situation October 2024 - UK Ministry of Defense

Despite its superior military performance, Ukraine has one-fourth of Russia's population and cannot continue to sustain these losses. Until recently, Ukraine's rapid adoptions of asymmetric drone warfare on land and sea have held off Russian forces. For example, Ukraine's stealth drone ships have damaged 22 and destroyed 13  ships in Russia's Black Sea fleet. Unfortunately, the tide changed against Ukraine this summer when Russia launched a massive offensive that forced Ukraine to cede land or be overwhelmed. Only more Western weapons and the permission to use them deeper into Russia to target airbases, weapons depots, transport, and troup marshaling areas can give Ukraine a degree of relief from Russian brute force direct assaults.

Ukraine Naval Campaign against Russian Black Sea Fleet

As for Russia, both manpower and economics are working against them. On the economic side, Russia's economy would have collapsed under the West's financial and technology embargo if not for the support of China. However, the Chinese expect payment. They have their own post-COVID economic problems. If oil prices fall, as they surely will when the new Trump Administration energy policy ( drill baby drill) starts in January 2025, Russia will face falling oil revenue and an eventual financial default later next year.

Russia's military manpower issue is no better than Ukraine's. The Russian Army is rife with desertion, so much so that Russia requested a contingent of 10,000  troops from North Korea. By  October 2024, the North Korean troops began marshaling in the  Kursk area, where Ukraine staged a  2nd front in the war in July 2024 to relieve pressure from the main front. For the first time since World War 2, Russia had been invaded. Putin could not afford to move troops from the primary front – hence the 10,00 North Koreans arriving for a counter-assault to oust the Ukrainian forces from Russian territory.

The Latest Round Escalation in the Ukraine-Russia War – It's Been A Busy Week!

The Biden Administration and our NATO Allies agreed that thet North Korean troops represented an escalation in fighting that could not go unchecked. On Sunday,

ATACMS launch from M270 Mobil Launcher - US Army

November 17, For the first time since the war started, President Biden removed the restriction of using U.S. weapons inside Russia and authorized the weapons release of U.S. Army ATACMS for the Kursk region where the North Korean troops are staged. The UK and France immediately followed the U.S. lead and approved the release of UK Storm Shadow and French SCALP cruise missiles for similar use.

These missiles represent a serious threat to Russia. Rusian S300/400 air defense systems which have proved ineffective in defending Iran against Israel. (see A Lesson In Deterrence: The Israeli Strikes Against Iran's Air Defenses HERE) Russia clearly understood that it had little chance to defend against the

U.S. Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) they now face. The ATACMS is a highly accurate short-range ballistic missile that travels at Mach 3, has a range of 190 miles, and can carry a single  472 lb warhead or disburse several hundred M74 bomblets (smart mines).

Ukraine didn't hesitate to put these new weapons to use, setting off a series of strikes and counter-stikes, escalating tensions to a new height in the Ukraine-Russia war. Here is a blow-by-blow  timeline:

• Monday, November 18: Ukraine launches a salvo of  8 ATACMS targeting North Korean troops in the Kursk region. The attack destroyed a major arsenal of logistics center and killed or wounded an unreported number of North Korean Troops, including severely injuring a North Korean General.

• Tuesday, November 19: Putin signs a new version of "Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence," Russia's nuclear doctrine and rules of engagement. The new document spells out conditions under which Putin could use a nuclear option in response to a conventional strike, essentially threatening the West with nuclear retribution for Ukraine's conventional strikes on Russia. ALARM BELLS RANG EVERYWHERE – but the West did not back down

• Wednesday, November 20: Ukraine fires a 12 UK Storm Shadow cruise missile salvo at the Russian village of Marino in the Kursk region. The exact nature of the target(s) in Marino is unknown. Later that day, President Biden approved the use of smart mines by Ukraine. These are believed to be M74 antipersonnel mines, which can be launched on ATACMS missiles and are an ideal weapon to blunt an enemy's assault.

• Friday, November 22:  Russia counters the Ukraine attack by launching what the Pentagon has identified as a new experimental intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile (IRBM) known as "Oreshnik", or Hazel Tree, armed with a MIRV- Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle warhead at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The MIRV warheads were conventionally armed, hitting multiple targets in Dnipro but causing little damage. The attack was designed to send a message – "Back Off!" Putin later announced that Russia had additional  "Oreshnik" experimental weapons and would use them if necessary.

Ten MIRV warheads hit targets near Kwajalein Atoll - US Air Force

The launch of "Oreshnik" likely caused a nuclear launch warning FLASH  message from U.S. Strategic Command to U.S and NATO forces. A ballistic missile launch generates a massive thermal plume immediately detected by U.S. early-warning thermal imaging satellites. Depending on the location of the launch and initial missile course prediction, a set of regional air defense systems (combined radar & missile interceptor batteries) are provided initial target parameters to track the incoming missile(s) and determine which missile defense assets should engage the target. Given the Friday missile strike was from Russia and targeted a location in Central Europe, the following U.S. / NATO missile defense system would have immediately activated and tracked the incoming missile:

• The U.S. BMD – Ballistic Missile Defense radar at Kürecik, Türkiye

• U.S. Aegis Ashore site at Deveselu Air Base, Romania

• U.S. Aegis Ashore site at the Redzikowo military base, Poland

Within seconds, these systems would have identified the Dnipro area as the target. The U.S/NATO likely warned Ukraine but could not engage this lone missile with their powerful AGEIS US Navy SM3-IIB antiballistic interceptors – NATO cannot provide direct support to Ukraine. Make no mistake, the SM3-IIB could have knocked this missile out of the sky, as it has done dozens of times against Iran's ballistic and hypersonic missile attacks on Israel. It does, however, take a salvo of 2 to 4 interceptors to hit hypersonic targets and achieve a high probability of a kill. This has the knock-on effect of depleting the supply of interceptors and possibly overwhelm the air defense system.

Unable to respond, NATO and U.S. command had to sit and watch this attack play out. Here is the problem: A hypersonic IRBM strikes its target in a handful of minutes or less. There is no way to detect if a Russian ICBM or IRBM is armed with nuclear or conventional warheads until the MIRVWarheads hit their target. For a few minutes, the soldiers engaged in the  U.S. / NATO missile defense centers had to face the possibility that this was indeed a nuclear missile and World War III was about to start. SOBERING – VERY DAMN SOBERING. In the end, It was a conventional strike. As you would expect, the Pentagon downplayed this attack in their briefings and engagement with the general public. However, for a few minutes on Friday, November 22nd,  that was how the whole thing went down.

Over the next days and weeks, further provocations and escalations will likely occur on both sides. We have to hold tight and see how this plays out.

This entire situation begs the question, what would trigger the U.S. to engage in Nuclear war? To answer that, let's look at a section of my upcoming book:

How the Hell Did We Get Here? 

A Citizens' Guide to thet New Cold War and Rebuilding Deterrenc

The book goes on Pre-sale on Monday, December 2nd

Join my "Dystopic" newsletter to find out more  HERE

The Rules of Engagement

So, when would the U.S. use nuclear weapons? Is there a list of conditions? What guides the U.S. Military and the President? Given that deterrence relies on our enemy's understanding of our "lines in the sand," our allies and enemies should be crystal clear on U.S. actions. 

How The Hell Did We Get Here? #HowTheHellBook

As it turns out, we do have a "Rules of Engagement," a Nuclear Doctrine published for anyone to read. The current rules were released in the 2018 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, (Office of The Secretary of Defense, 2018) and the policy remained unchanged in the 2022 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review. (Office of The Secretary of Defense, 2022) Both of these documents are public and include the following declaratory policy regarding the potential employment of nuclear weapons: 

"The United States would only consider the employment of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States, its allies, and partners. Extreme circumstances could include significant non-nuclear strategic attacks. Significant non-nuclear strategic attacks include but are not limited to, attacks on the U.S., allied, or partner civilian population or infrastructure, and attacks on U.S. or allied nuclear forces, their command and control, or warning and attack assessment capabilities.

The United States will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states that are party to the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and in compliance with their nuclear non-proliferation obligations.

Given the potential of significant non-nuclear strategic attacks, the United States reserves the right to make any adjustment in the assurance that may be warranted by the evolution and proliferation of non-nuclear strategic attack technologies and U.S. capabilities to counter that threat."

There are a couple of points to take note of: 

• Nuclear attacks can counter both conventional and nuclear attacks based on severity. It is not limited to the nuclear-only response. Any attack on our early warning, intelligence gathering, command and control, or the weapons themselves would invite nuclear retaliation. (which are covered in Chapter 6 and 7 of my book)

• The U.S. reserves the right to conduct a first nuclear strike. That was a change in posture. Until the rise of rogue nuclear powers, North Korea specifically, the U.S. had a no-first-use policy. 

• Our Allies are covered by the doctrine that we extend a nuclear umbrella over them with all the same rules of engagement we have for ourselves. 

• A new section was added to the 2018 policy. The U.S. recognized that emerging threats such as cyber, information, biological, or space warfare could be as damaging as conventional or nuclear attacks. 

  
  

I'm sure the fact that we would risk U.S. security by extending our "nuclear umbrella" to our Allies gives you pause. Why should we do that? The simple answer is to limit nuclear proliferation and lower strategic complexity. It's bad enough that 11 nations have nuclear weapons. From the moment the U.S. exploded the atomic bomb in 1945, our policy was to limit the proliferation of the technology. A country doesn't need nuclear weapons, their risks, or their expense if they have the credible protection of a superpower. 

Michael Rühle, department head at NATO's Emerging Security Challenges Division, lays out the realities of U.S. responsibilities to ourselves and to our allies whether we, U.S. citizens, like it or not. "It is moot to speculate whether the United States would indeed be willing to risk nuclear escalation in order to protect an Ally. What counts is the political signal that Washington views the security of its Allies as a fundamental national security interest … the United States remains the linchpin of Western deterrence. This is not just due to their tremendous military power but also their political will to act as a guarantor of global order. Should the U.S. lose this will – or lose its ability to convey it – others would soon test the various "red lines" drawn by Washington." (Rühle, 2015)

The U.S. has clearly defined rules of engagement concerning nuclear weapons release for acts against ourselves or our allies, and in that respect, we have the political will to maintain our nuclear umbrella of protection. Our issue today in this New Cold War is a lack of clearly defined rules with respect to Grey Zone or regional aggression. Tensions in these areas are caught up in bureaucratic and political inertia and debate delaying or eliminating timely responses to de-escalate these lower levels of egress and undermining deterrence.

Final Thoughts

At the time of writing this blog, it is 2 months until Donald Trump becomes the 47th President of The United States. Until then, we can expect not just Russia but China, Iran, and North Korea to maneuver to strengthen their position both militarily and economically to deal with the incoming Trump Administration. The Biden Administration, while having strengthened and broadened ties with our Allies, has, nonetheless,  been slow to act and weak in action.

The so-called "Axis of Tyranny," Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, will take whatever advantage of the Biden Administration's weakness during the U.S. transition of power. Our concern during this transition period is that an Axis member(s) overplays their hand and, through miscalculation, starts a full-scale war with the U.S.. Putin certainly seems to be heading in that direction.

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Dystopic: The Technology Behind Today's News

Ukraine War Update to the UK House of Lords:

https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/war-in-ukraine-update-october-2024/

Official Ukrine war Website:

https://war.ukraine.ua/faq/what-are-the-russian-death-toll-and-other-losses-in-ukraine/

British Storm Shadow and French SCALP Cruise missiles deployment: https://www.politico.eu/article/joe-biden-storm-shadow-scalp-cruise-missiles-war-in-ukraine-russian-targets-uk-france-weapons/

U.S. / NATO Missile defense systems: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49635.htm